Comparison of forecast and actual business

At the end of 2012, we had assumed that important customer industries like the automotive and tire sectors would perform well in fiscal 2013, especially in the Americas and Asia. We also expected positive momentum to come from the agrochemical industry. Looking back, our expectations were partially fulfilled: Adjusted for portfolio and currency effects, sales of the Performance Polymers segment in Asia grew by around 2% but contracted by a double-digit percentage in North America and Latin America. The decline in sales resulted from decreasing selling prices on account of increasing competition, especially for standard rubber products. An additional factor was the downward trend in raw material prices. The demand for agrochemicals remained strong.

In our half-year report, we had predicted that EBITDA pre exceptionals for the full year 2013 would come in at between €700 million and €800 million. We narrowed this guidance to between €710 million and €760 million in our third-quarter report. A result of €735 million was posted in the year under review, which is in the middle of the guidance range.

Comparison of Forecast and Actual Business 2013
 
  Forecast for 2013 in Annual Report 2012/Q1 Interim Report Forecast for 2013 in H1 Interim Report Forecast for 2013 in Q3 Interim Report Actual 2013
         
Business development: Group        
EBITDA pre exceptionals Below €1 billion €700 million
to €800 million
€710 million
to €760 million
€735 million
Business development: segments        
Performance Polymers Most dynamic
development in the
emerging markets
of Asia
Continuing weak
demand; most dynamic
development in the
emerging markets of Asia
Continuing difficult market environment; stimulus from USA and China Difficult market environment; most dynamic development in China
Advanced Intermediates Good demand for
agrochemicals
Continuing good demand Unchanged Continuing good demand
for agrochemicals
Performance Chemicals Demand stimulus from
North America and Asia
Unchanged Unchanged Demand stimulus from
Asia, especially in the second
half of the year
Raw material prices Sideways movement in
procurement costs and
continuing volatility
Unchanged Unchanged Significantly lower price level
Financial condition: Group        
Cash outflows for capital expenditures €650 million
to €700 million
Approx. €600 million Approx. €600 million €624 million
 

We had forecasted volatile lateral development of raw material prices in 2013 and initially assumed a comparatively high price level. By contrast, price trends for butadiene significantly drove down procurement prices. As a result, the price level for our raw materials at year end was some 10% below the prior year end.

At the end of 2012, we had anticipated cash outflows for capital expenditures of between €650 million and €700 million. After focusing the allocation of resources on key strategic projects, we targeted around €600 million. Cash outflows for capital expenditures of €624 million in 2013 were slightly above this target.

For LANXESS AG, we had assumed net income in 2013 on the level of the previous year. However, due mainly to the reduction in income from investments in affiliated companies, net income of €35 million was substantially below the prior-year value of €104 million.