Comparison of forecast and actual business
At the end of 2012, we had assumed that important customer industries like the automotive and tire sectors would perform well in fiscal 2013, especially in the Americas and Asia. We also expected positive momentum to come from the agrochemical industry. Looking back, our expectations were partially fulfilled: Adjusted for portfolio and currency effects, sales of the Performance Polymers segment in Asia grew by around 2% but contracted by a double-digit percentage in North America and Latin America. The decline in sales resulted from decreasing selling prices on account of increasing competition, especially for standard rubber products. An additional factor was the downward trend in raw material prices. The demand for agrochemicals remained strong.
In our half-year report, we had predicted that EBITDA pre exceptionals for the full year 2013 would come in at between €700 million and €800 million. We narrowed this guidance to between €710 million and €760 million in our third-quarter report. A result of €735 million was posted in the year under review, which is in the middle of the guidance range.
|Comparison of Forecast and Actual Business 2013|
|Forecast for 2013 in Annual Report 2012/Q1 Interim Report||Forecast for 2013 in H1 Interim Report||Forecast for 2013 in Q3 Interim Report||Actual 2013|
|Business development: Group|
|EBITDA pre exceptionals||Below €1 billion||€700 million
to €800 million
to €760 million
|Business development: segments|
|Performance Polymers||Most dynamic
development in the
demand; most dynamic
development in the
emerging markets of Asia
|Continuing difficult market environment; stimulus from USA and China||Difficult market environment; most dynamic development in China|
|Advanced Intermediates||Good demand for
|Continuing good demand||Unchanged||Continuing good demand
|Performance Chemicals||Demand stimulus from
North America and Asia
|Unchanged||Unchanged||Demand stimulus from
Asia, especially in the second
half of the year
|Raw material prices||Sideways movement in
procurement costs and
|Unchanged||Unchanged||Significantly lower price level|
|Financial condition: Group|
|Cash outflows for capital expenditures||€650 million
to €700 million
|Approx. €600 million||Approx. €600 million||€624 million|
We had forecasted volatile lateral development of raw material prices in 2013 and initially assumed a comparatively high price level. By contrast, price trends for butadiene significantly drove down procurement prices. As a result, the price level for our raw materials at year end was some 10% below the prior year end.
At the end of 2012, we had anticipated cash outflows for capital expenditures of between €650 million and €700 million. After focusing the allocation of resources on key strategic projects, we targeted around €600 million. Cash outflows for capital expenditures of €624 million in 2013 were slightly above this target.
For LANXESS AG, we had assumed net income in 2013 on the level of the previous year. However, due mainly to the reduction in income from investments in affiliated companies, net income of €35 million was substantially below the prior-year value of €104 million.